Auckland, and probably different elements of New Zealand, virtually definitely have extra circumstances of COVID-19 locally than the four new cases confirmed yesterday.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern activated a resurgence plan late yesterday, putting all of Auckland again below alert degree three restrictions from right now till midnight on Friday to permit time for contacts to be traced and examined.
But till we will determine the chain of transmission, New Zealanders ought to put together for restrictions to stay in place for longer.
All 4 new circumstances are inside one household in South Auckland, with no hyperlinks but found to quarantine or border amenities. But members of the family work in different places throughout totally different suburbs, which implies the restrictions want to use to the entire metropolis.
When Melbourne discovered itself in an analogous place a month in the past, the town’s technique was to lockdown particular suburbs. Unfortunately this didn’t comprise the virus.
Quick return to restrictions
Swift and decisive motion is essential, and we assist the choice to position stricter situations on Auckland and to return the remainder of the nation to alert degree 2. We ought to all be very cautious.
Everyone working on the border or in managed isolation will probably be examined and pop-up stations have opened throughout Auckland to hold out mass testing. But it’s fairly attainable somebody inside the wider contact community of the circumstances has traveled exterior Auckland. People who’ve traveled to Auckland within the final two weeks ought to act as if they’re below degree three restrictions and keep dwelling from work.
Whether we’re in Auckland or not, we must always all resume social distancing, working from dwelling if we will, and sporting a masks if attainable once we exit. If we do the fitting issues now, there is a good probability we will comprise this group outbreak earlier than it spreads an excessive amount of additional.
We’re going to wish to do loads of testing to work out how far the virus has unfold. It’s simpler at this stage to focus on high-risk teams reasonably than testing folks at random. People with signs or individuals who have been recognized as shut contacts of recognized circumstances needs to be prioritized for testing.
If you might be provided a check or you do not really feel nicely, you need to get examined, however for those who really feel superb, simply keep at dwelling.
Rapid contact tracing goes to be key to getting the virus below management. Our recent modeling reveals that if we will hint and quarantine 80% of contacts inside two days on common, it would go a protracted approach to containing the outbreak.
Contact tracers are additionally doing backward tracing—discovering the supply of an infection so we all know what number of different circumstances are on the market—as nicely as ahead tracing, which implies quarantining contacts so they do not move the virus on.
For Auckland, shifting to alert degree three reduces the variety of contacts most of us have. This will make the job simpler for contact tracers over the approaching days as they might solely must hint one or two contacts per particular person reasonably than ten or extra.
Everyone ought to now draw up a listing of the place they have been and who they’ve seen for the final two weeks. This can be a wake-up name to redouble our efforts to maintain diaries of actions and to make use of the NZ COVID Tracer app to maintain a document.
The Tracer app has the added benefit that the Ministry of Health can routinely notify anyone who has visited the identical location as a confirmed or potential case. We encourage Aucklanders specifically to examine their apps, diaries and bank accounts to compile as a lot element as attainable of locations they’ve visited or folks they’ve met over the past 14 days.
What occurs subsequent
What occurs subsequent actually relies upon on the outcomes of the contact tracing investigations already underway. There is loads of luck concerned within the early levels of an outbreak like this one. If we’re fortunate, lots of these contaminated could not have but have handed the virus on.
But it is also attainable there could have been a superspreading occasion, for instance at a office or social gathering. In that case, there might be numerous circumstances already on the market. Although the alert degree is presently in place till Friday, we needs to be ready for this to be prolonged, relying on what number of circumstances we discover within the subsequent three days.
Back in February, once we had our first circumstances of COVID-19, the scenario was very totally different. We had an open border and most circumstances had been worldwide vacationers or their shut contacts.
We had been additionally getting round 80 new circumstances a day by the point we went into lockdown in March. This time we now have locked down with a smaller variety of circumstances and we nonetheless have strict border restrictions in place.
This ought to give us confidence that if all of us do the fitting issues, we will get the outbreak below management a lot sooner than final time.
University of Canterbury
New Zealand on alert as COVID-19 returns (2020, August 12)
retrieved 12 August 2020
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